Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
